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Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2019-29
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2019-29
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Regular paper 04 Mar 2019

Regular paper | 04 Mar 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Annales Geophysicae (ANGEO).

Phenomena preceding major earthquakes interconnected through a physical model

Panayiotis A. Varotsos1,2, Nicholas V. Sarlis1,2, and Efthimios S. Skordas1,2 Panayiotis A. Varotsos et al.
  • 1Section of Solid State Physics, Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens, Greece
  • 2Solid Earth Physics Institute, Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens, Greece

Abstract. The analysis of earthquake time series in a new time domain termed natural time enables the uncovering of hidden properties in time series of complex systems and has been recently employed as basis of a method to estimate seismic risk. Applying this analysis, as an example, to the Japanese seismic data from 1 January 1984 until the super-giant M9 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011, we find that almost three months before its occurrence the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal is minimized on 22 December 2010, which signals an impending major earthquake. On this date the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity exhibit abrupt increase. This increase is accompanied by various phenomena, e.g., from this date the horizontal GPS azimuths start to become gradually oriented toward the southern direction, while they had random orientation during the preceding period. Two weeks later, a minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity appears accompanied by anomalous Earth's magnetic field variations and by full alignment of the orientations of GPS azimuths southwards leading to the most intense crust uplift. These phenomena are discussed and found to be in accordance with a physical model which seems to explain on a unified basis anomalous precursory changes observed either in ground-based measurements or in satellite data.

Panayiotis A. Varotsos et al.
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Short summary
In this paper, we summarize the anomalous phenomena that have been observed before the super-giant earthquake of magnitude 9.0 that occurred on 11 March 2011 in Japan. These phenomena have been detected by means of ground based measurements and satellite data. We find that all these phenomena are in agreement with a condensed matter physical model that motivated in the 1980s a short-term earthquake prediction method based on the detection of precursory electric signals.
In this paper, we summarize the anomalous phenomena that have been observed before the...
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