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Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2019-163
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2019-163
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: regular paper 02 Jan 2020

Submitted as: regular paper | 02 Jan 2020

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Annales Geophysicae (ANGEO).

Development of a formalism for computing in situ transits of Earth-directed CMEs. Towards a forecasting tool II

Pedro Corona-Romero1,2 and Pete Riley3 Pedro Corona-Romero and Pete Riley
  • 1Space Weather National Laboratory (LANCE), Insituto de Geofisica Unidad Michoacan, Universidad Nacional Autonomade Mexico, Campus Morelia, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
  • 2CONACYT-Insituto de Geofisica Unidad Michoacan, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Campus Morelia,Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
  • 3Predictive Science Inc. 9990 Mesa Rim Rd Suite 170, San Diego CA 92127, USA

Abstract. Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are of an important interest for space weather purposes, because they are precursors of the major geomagnetic storms. The geoeffectiveness of a CME mostly relies on its physical properties like magnetic field and speed. There are multiple efforts in the literature to estimate in situ transit profiles of CMEs, most of them based on numerical codes. In this work we present a semi-empirical formalism to compute in situ transit profiles of Earth-directed fast halo CMEs. Our formalism combines analytic models and empirical relations to approximate CME properties as would be seen by a spacecraft near the Earth's orbit. We use our formalism to calculate synthetic transit profiles for 10 events, including the Bastille day event and three varSITI Campaign events. Our results showed qualitative agreement with in situ measurements. Synthetic profiles of speed, magnetic intensity, density and temperature of protons had average errors of 10 %, 27 %, 46 % and 83 %, respectively. Additionally, we also computed the travel time of CME centers, with an average error of 9 %. We found that compression of CMEs by the surrounding solar wind significantly increased our uncertainties. We also outline a possible path to apply this formalism into a space weather forecasting tool.

Pedro Corona-Romero and Pete Riley
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 18 Feb 2020)
Status: open (until 18 Feb 2020)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Pedro Corona-Romero and Pete Riley
Data sets

NASA/GSFC's OMNI data set through OMNIWeb service N. Papitashvili https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JA010649

CME catalog at the CDAW Data Center by NASA S. Yashiro and N. Gopalswamy https://doi.org/10.1007/s11038-008-9282-7

Model code and software

CME catalog I. G. Richardson and H. V. Cane https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-010-9568-6

Pedro Corona-Romero and Pete Riley
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Short summary
Solar storms are natural phenomena that affect technologies in which our societies are highly dependent. The understanding of solar storms and the capability to anticipate their effects on our technologies is of main interest to shield our societies. In this work we present a semi-empirical approach to increase our understanding of solar storms when they hit our planet. We also preset a possible pathway to forecast the transits of solar storms by our planet's orbit.
Solar storms are natural phenomena that affect technologies in which our societies are highly...
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