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Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: regular paper 03 Dec 2019

Submitted as: regular paper | 03 Dec 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Annales Geophysicae (ANGEO).

A note on the statistical evidence for an influence of geomagnetic activity on JRA-55 northern hemisphere seasonal-mean stratospheric temperatures

Nazario Tartaglione1,2, Thomas Toniazzo1,2, Yvan Orsolini2,3,4, and Odd Helge Otterå1,2 Nazario Tartaglione et al.
  • 1NORCE Climate, Bergen, Norway
  • 2Bjerkness Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
  • 3Birkeland Centre for Space Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
  • 4Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway

Abstract. We employ JRA-55, a recent second-generation global reanalysis providing data of high-quality in the stratosphere, to examine whether a distinguishable effect of geomagnetic activity on northern hemisphere stratospheric temperatures can be detected. We focus on how the statistical significance of stratospheric temperature differences may be robustly assessed during years with high and low geomagnetic activity. Two problems must be overcome. The first is the temporal autocorrelation of the data, which is addressed with a correction of the t-statistics by means of the estimate of the number of independent values in the series of correlated values. The second is the problem of multiplicity due to strong spatial autocorrelations, which is addressed by means of a false discovery rate (FDR) procedure. We find that the statistical tests fail to formally reject the null hypothesis, i.e. no significant response to geomagnetic activity can be found in the seasonal-mean northern-hemisphere stratospheric temperature record.

Nazario Tartaglione et al.
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Status: final response (author comments only)
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Nazario Tartaglione et al.
Nazario Tartaglione et al.
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